SPYV State Street SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 Value ETF Analysis: bearish-leaning zone at Close 61.52 | aeoae
State Street SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 Value (SPYV) bearish-leaning zone at close 61.52, 65% structure confidence. L1-L4 levels, trend signals, and 60-day backtest data — all updated daily for independent analysis.
Date: 2026-07-20 00:00:00
Close: 61.52
Trend structure: bearish-leaning zone
Next-session four-line locked levels
L1 (defense baseline): 61.214
L2 (weak-to-strong confirmation): 61.647
L3 (strong zone confirmation): 62.003
L4 (upside target zone): 62.921
Close is above 1 L-line(s).
Boundary accuracy (structure quality): 65.3%
Confidence tier: moderately high confidence
Four-line confidence hub
Composite score: 0.478
Support hit rate: 42.4%
Resistance hit rate: 39.1%
Rating stability: 27.5%
Range accuracy: 47.8%
Peer group ranking
S&P 500 rank: 28/53 (in step with peers)
Top 3 in group: RSPG, XYLD, RSPT
Phase target tracking
L4 upside target touch rate
Next 15d: 50%
Next 30d: 50%
Next 60d: 75%
Next 120d: 75%
Rating stability: moderate (36.6%)
Boundary accuracy breakdown
recent boundary alignment: 12.42 pts
relative advantage: 18.03 pts
historical depth: 20 pts
stability: 5.49 pts
current structure strength: 4.41 pts
Trend Analysis
Main judgment: The 6/12/24D backdrop is mixed, so the current move should be read with caution. The tape is still in a repair phase; confirmation is not complete yet. Price is still in the L1/L2 repair area, so capital is only probing back in. This is a direct multi-line drop, so the intermediate support steps were not completed in order and the move reads as a fast weakening. Structure moved from L3-L4 support zone to L1-L2 probe zone. This is a direct multi-line drop, so the structure has gapped lower and the intermediate support steps were not completed in order. This is still a weak-zone probe; only a stable reclaim of L1 and later L2 (61.647) can clear fake-repair risk; if closes fall back below L1 (61.214), risk release resumes, leaning to cash / wait. Key watch: the low-zone bounce still looks unconfirmed and can fail quickly - close vs L1 is 0.5%, close vs L2 is -0.2%, and close position is 3.8%. Do not read this as real repair until L1/L2 are reclaimed and held. Boundary warning: close is only 0.2% from L2 (61.647), so the upgrade confirmation needs a sustained hold above it, not a single touch. close is only 0.5% from L1 (61.214), so the retreat risk is elevated; a clean break below it would confirm weakening. L-line trajectory: Lines are expanding: volatility expectations are rising, structure is broadening. Jump type: tight-line pseudo-jump. Evidence 1: The direct multi-line drop shows the intermediate support steps were not completed in order, Key levels: close 61.52, L3 62.003 (-0.8%). Evidence 2: Until the key L-lines are reclaimed, this should be treated as a fast weakening move, Behavior check: width 11.7%. Action bias: cash / wait.
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