IBDT iShares iBonds Dec 2028 Term Corporate ETF Analysis: bearish-leaning zone at Close 25.17 | aeoae
iShares iBonds Dec 2028 Term Corporate (IBDT) bearish-leaning zone at close 25.17, 71% structure confidence. L1-L4 levels, trend signals, and 60-day backtest data — all updated daily for independent analysis.
Date: 2026-07-20 00:00:00
Close: 25.17
Trend structure: bearish-leaning zone
Next-session four-line locked levels
L1 (defense baseline): 25.148
L2 (weak-to-strong confirmation): 25.179
L3 (strong zone confirmation): 25.204
L4 (upside target zone): 25.261
Close is above 1 L-line(s).
Boundary accuracy (structure quality): 70.93%
Confidence tier: moderately high confidence
Four-line confidence hub
Composite score: 0.687
Support hit rate: 66.4%
Resistance hit rate: 62.9%
Rating stability: 35.7%
Range accuracy: 68.7%
Peer group ranking
U.S. Fixed Income rank: 91/168 (in step with peers)
Top 3 in group: KMLM, GSG, BSCR
Phase target tracking
Lock date: 2026-05-07
Phase target: 25.494
Days elapsed: 49
Status: Tracking
Target return: 1%
Gap to target: 1.3%
L4 upside target touch rate
Next 15d: 0%
Next 30d: 0%
Next 60d: 50%
Next 120d: 50%
Rating stability: moderate (43.7%)
Boundary accuracy breakdown
recent boundary alignment: 15.56 pts
relative advantage: 16.36 pts
historical depth: 20 pts
stability: 6.55 pts
current structure strength: 6.04 pts
Trend Analysis
Main judgment: The larger 24D/12D backdrop is still weak, but the latest 6D pace has bounced. The move is still alive, but it is clearly shifting from expansion into cooling/decay. The L-line spread is narrowing after expansion, while structure is still in repair/probe territory. This is a direct multi-line drop, so the intermediate support steps were not completed in order and the move reads as a fast weakening. Structure moved from L3-L4 support zone to L1-L2 probe zone. This is a direct multi-line drop, so the structure has gapped lower and the intermediate support steps were not completed in order. This is still a weak-zone probe; only a stable reclaim of L1 and later L2 (25.179) can clear fake-repair risk; if closes fall back below L1 (25.148), risk release resumes, leaning to cash / wait. Key watch: the low-zone bounce still looks unconfirmed and can fail quickly - close vs L1 is 0.1%, close vs L2 is -0.0%, and close position is 0.0%. Do not read this as real repair until L1/L2 are reclaimed and held. Boundary warning: close is only 0.0% from L2 (25.179), so the upgrade confirmation needs a sustained hold above it, not a single touch. close is only 0.1% from L1 (25.148), so the retreat risk is elevated; a clean break below it would confirm weakening. L-line trajectory: Lines are converging: volatility expectations are receding, structure is compressing. Jump type: tight-line pseudo-jump. Evidence 1: The direct multi-line drop shows the intermediate support steps were not completed in order, Structure stats: zone streak 1, width shift -34.9%, current zone L1-L2 probe zone. Evidence 2: Until the key L-lines are reclaimed, this should be treated as a fast weakening move, Behavior check: support stable. Action bias: cash / wait.
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