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Research/U.S. Long-Term Treasuries ETF Theme Comparison/U.S. Long-Term TreasuriesData 2026-08-13
U.S. Long-Term Treasuries ETF Theme Comparison - aeoae

U.S. Long-Term Treasuries ETF Overview

This group currently tracks 11 ETFs, with average boundary fit 52.3% and average structure score 0.52.

Risk ReleaseSECTOR PHASE

U.S. Long-Term Treasuries still has a high share of weak or defensive members. Wait for that pressure to ease before treating rebounds as a full group turn.

Use this page as a filter, then verify single-ETF detail pages.

Participation
18.0%
Breakout Share
0.0%
Average Fit
52.3%

01Group Overview

Start with size, participation, breakout depth and current fit.
Tracked ETFs
11
Current snapshot
L3+
2
18.0%
Watch List
0
Middle structure
Defense Zone
11
100.0%

02Group Conclusion

Conclusion first, evidence second, ETF data third.
Main Trend
Risk Release

U.S. Long-Term Treasuries still has a high share of weak or defensive members. Wait for that pressure to ease before treating rebounds as a full group turn.

Direction
18.0%

Participation · Breakout Share 0.0% · Average Fit 52.3%

Action Bias
0.22

Start with higher-ranked ETFs, then verify boundary details.

03Peer Group Comparison

Compare adjacent groups on one scale.
GroupParticipationBreakoutTrend ScoreStructure FitStage
Cybersecurity100.0%100.0%0.9684.8%Mainline Expansion
Cloud / Software / Internet100.0%100.0%0.9478.7%Mainline Expansion
AI / Robotics100.0%89.0%0.9373.8%Mainline Expansion
Nuclear / Uranium100.0%100.0%0.9367.7%Mainline Expansion
Silver100.0%100.0%0.9367.3%Mainline Expansion
Gold Miners100.0%100.0%0.9267.3%Mainline Expansion
Physical Gold100.0%100.0%0.9265.3%Mainline Expansion
Defense / Aerospace100.0%86.0%0.8972.5%Mainline Expansion

04ETF Ranking and Selection

Answer which ETF deserves attention first.
1
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF IEF
Trend
neutral zone
Stage
L1-L2
Score
0.53
Historical Fit62.4%
Ranking uses structure score, boundary position, current fit and relative strength.
Open detail ->
2
Invesco Equal Weight 0-30 Years Treasury ETF GOVI
Trend
neutral zone
Stage
L1-
Score
0.52
Historical Fit62.5%
Ranking uses structure score, boundary position, current fit and relative strength.
Open detail ->
3
Bondbloxx Bloomberg Ten Year Target Duration US Treasury ETF XTEN
Trend
neutral zone
Stage
L1-
Score
0.39
Historical Fit62.3%
Ranking uses structure score, boundary position, current fit and relative strength.
Open detail ->
4
iShares 10-20 Year Treasury Bond ETF TLH
Trend
neutral zone
Stage
L1-
Score
0.39
Historical Fit60.7%
Ranking uses structure score, boundary position, current fit and relative strength.
Open detail ->
5
State Street SPDR Portfolio Long Term Treasury ETF SPTL
Trend
neutral zone
Stage
L1-
Score
0.37
Historical Fit61.4%
Ranking uses structure score, boundary position, current fit and relative strength.
Open detail ->
6
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond Buywrite Strategy ETF TLTW
Trend
bearish-leaning zone
Stage
L1-
Score
0.35
Historical Fit60.4%
Ranking uses structure score, boundary position, current fit and relative strength.
Open detail ->

05Theme Structure

Separate breadth, breakout, defense and fit.
Participation
18.0%
Breakout Share
0.0%
Defense
100.0%
Average Fit
52.3%
Score
22.5%

06ETF Comparison Module

Each ETF shows trend, stage, room, fit and ranking reason.
TickerNameTrendStageTarget RoomHistorical FitRankWhy Leading
IEFiShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond E…neutral zoneL1-L21.0%62.4%1/8Top-three group rank, priority watch candidate
GOVIInvesco Equal Weight 0-30 Years T…neutral zoneL1-1.5%62.5%2/8Top-three group rank, priority watch candidate
XTENBondbloxx Bloomberg Ten Year Targ…neutral zoneL1-1.6%62.3%3/8Top-three group rank, priority watch candidate
TLHiShares 10-20 Year Treasury Bond…neutral zoneL1-2.0%60.7%4/8Currently in L1-, useful peer benchmark
SPTLState Street SPDR Portfolio Long…neutral zoneL1-2.4%61.4%5/8Currently in L1-, useful peer benchmark
TLTWiShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond Bu…bearish-leaning zoneL1-2.5%60.4%6/8Currently in L1-, useful peer benchmark
EDVVanguard Extended Duration Treasu…bearish-leaning zoneL1-4.3%61.4%7/8Currently in L1-, useful peer benchmark
ZROZPIMCO 25+ Year Zero Coupon U.S. T…bearish-leaning zoneL1-4.8%62.1%8/8Currently in L1-, useful peer benchmark

07ETF Lanes

Narrow the group before opening ETF details.
Leaders
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bo… strong bearish structure
IEF · Watch
Invesco Equal Weight 0-30 Yea… strong bearish structure
GOVI · Watch
Watch
Bondbloxx Bloomberg Ten Year… strong bearish structure
XTEN · Watch
iShares 10-20 Year Treasury B… strong bearish structure
TLH · Watch
Repair
State Street SPDR Portfolio L… strong bearish structure
SPTL · Watch
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bon… strong bearish structure
TLTW · Watch
Defense
Vanguard Extended Duration Tr… strong bearish structure
EDV · Watch
PIMCO 25+ Year Zero Coupon U.… strong bearish structure
ZROZ · Watch

08What This Page Answers

Three frequent questions with direct answers.
Is U.S. Long-Term Treasuries strong now?

U.S. Long-Term Treasuries is currently in Risk Release; participation is 18.0% and breakout share is 0.0%.

Which U.S. Long-Term Treasuries ETF should be checked first?

Start with the first ranking card, then verify boundaries, review history and liquidity on the detail page.

What should I do next?

Open a single ETF detail page and verify Daily Review, boundary prices, holdings, liquidity and fees.

1

Read rotation first

Use the rotation radar to place this group in the broader market.

Open Rotation Radar ->
2

Then check ranking

Open the higher-ranked ETF detail first.

Open Top ETF ->
3

Cross-check peers

If the group is weak, compare peers to see where strength is moving.

Back to Research ->

09Group Distribution

Trend and boundary distribution clarify structure quickly.

Trend Distribution

62.5%37.5%
Neutral
62.5%
5
Bearish
37.5%
3

Boundary Distribution

12.5%87.5%
L1-L2
12.5%
1
L1-
87.5%
7

10Difference Reading

Conclusion, evidence and boundary note.
Insight
  • Conclusion - U.S. Long-Term Treasuries still has a high share of weak or defensive members. Wait for that pressure to ease before treating rebounds as a full group turn.
  • Evidence - Participation 18.0% · Breakout Share 0.0% · Average Fit 52.3%
  • Boundary - Compare leaders and laggards instead of treating the whole group as one state.

11ETF Comparison

Compare on one basis instead of reading one-day moves only.
TickerNameTrendZoneLinesStructure FitReviewScore
IEFiShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond E…neutral zoneL1-L2262.4%0.0%0.53
GOVIInvesco Equal Weight 0-30 Years T…neutral zoneL1-262.5%0.0%0.52
XTENBondbloxx Bloomberg Ten Year Targ…neutral zoneL1-262.3%0.0%0.39
TLHiShares 10-20 Year Treasury Bond…neutral zoneL1-260.7%0.0%0.39
SPTLState Street SPDR Portfolio Long…neutral zoneL1-261.4%0.0%0.37
TLTWiShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond Bu…bearish-leaning zoneL1-160.4%0.0%0.35
EDVVanguard Extended Duration Treasu…bearish-leaning zoneL1-161.4%0.0%0.34
ZROZPIMCO 25+ Year Zero Coupon U.S. T…bearish-leaning zoneL1-162.1%0.0%0.34

1212-Session Cross-Section Comparison

Compare each ETF over the recent 12-session cross-section by trend, boundary, fit and review state.
Position Layer
Average vs L3 -0.3%

Shows whether the group is only crossing the midline or already stretched far from L3.

Buffer Layer
Average vs L1 0.5%

Shows how much buffer remains above L1, which helps separate repair from stability.

Fit Layer
Average Boundary60 30.4

Shows the average historical boundary review score, a quick read on evidence quality.

TickerNameTrendLinesZoneStructure FitReviewvs L3vs L1L4 StateSamples
IEFiShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond E…neutral zone2L1-L262.4%40.0%-0.0%0.7%below trigger60
GOVIInvesco Equal Weight 0-30 Years T…neutral zone2L1-62.5%40.0%-0.1%0.7%below trigger60
XTENBondbloxx Bloomberg Ten Year Targ…neutral zone2L1-62.3%40.0%-0.1%0.7%below trigger60
TLHiShares 10-20 Year Treasury Bond…neutral zone2L1-60.7%25.0%-0.1%0.7%below trigger60
SPTLState Street SPDR Portfolio Long…neutral zone2L1-61.4%25.0%-0.3%0.6%below trigger60
TLTWiShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond Bu…bearish-leaning zone1L1-60.4%25.0%-0.5%0.1%below trigger60
EDVVanguard Extended Duration Treasu…bearish-leaning zone1L1-61.4%40.0%-0.8%0.3%below trigger60
ZROZPIMCO 25+ Year Zero Coupon U.S. T…bearish-leaning zone1L1-62.1%40.0%-0.9%0.3%below trigger60

13Historical Review Frame

Combine phase-target replay, reach efficiency and boundary review in one table.
Current Phase
Average samples 5

Shows how many historical phase samples this group can replay against.

Phase Review
15/30D 10.6% / 18.8%

Shows how often targets were reached in shorter windows, a read on near-term efficiency.

Boundary Review
60D 34.4% · avg 26.9 days

Combines 60D reach rate and average days to target, a read on completion speed.

TickerNameReview SamplesHit RateAvg DaysL4 15DL4 30DL4 60DStabilityBoundary 20Boundary 60
IEFiShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond E…540.0%35.50.0%0.0%40.0%lower confidence33.033.7
GOVIInvesco Equal Weight 0-30 Years T…540.0%24.020.0%20.0%40.0%lower confidence32.231.3
XTENBondbloxx Bloomberg Ten Year Targ…540.0%23.020.0%20.0%40.0%lower confidence28.429.3
TLHiShares 10-20 Year Treasury Bond…425.0%19.00.0%25.0%25.0%lower confidence38.433.6
SPTLState Street SPDR Portfolio Long…425.0%12.025.0%25.0%25.0%lower confidence35.432.3
TLTWiShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond Bu…425.0%58.00.0%0.0%25.0%lower confidence23.128.5
EDVVanguard Extended Duration Treasu…540.0%19.50.0%40.0%40.0%moderate20.228.0
ZROZPIMCO 25+ Year Zero Coupon U.S. T…540.0%24.020.0%20.0%40.0%moderate16.626.7

14Boundary Position Table

Compare close with L2/L3/L4 and read the current boundary zone.
TickerNameCloseL2L3L4Position
IEFiShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond E…93.3093.0993.3093.79L1-L2
GOVIInvesco Equal Weight 0-30 Years T…26.5426.4926.5626.72L1-
XTENBondbloxx Bloomberg Ten Year Targ…44.4844.4044.5244.81L1-
TLHiShares 10-20 Year Treasury Bond…97.1496.9697.2798.04L1-
SPTLState Street SPDR Portfolio Long…25.2425.2125.3025.53L1-
TLTWiShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond Bu…21.3221.3321.4221.64L1-
EDVVanguard Extended Duration Treasu…60.0260.0860.5161.49L1-
ZROZPIMCO 25+ Year Zero Coupon U.S. T…58.6758.7459.2260.32L1-

15Research Caliber

Grouping source, comparison order and interpretation boundary.
Grouping Source

Members follow the same grouping used by the rotation radar, so this page is rebuilt as data updates.

Reading Order

Read group breadth and distribution first, then ETF lanes, boundary position and historical fit.

Interpretation Boundary

The page explains relative structure inside the group; it does not replace official disclosures or suitability checks.

Risk Note - Risk note: group strength changes quickly. Verify official disclosures, liquidity and suitability independently.