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Research/U.S. Long-Term Treasuries ETF Theme Comparison/U.S. Long-Term TreasuriesData 2026-07-14
U.S. Long-Term Treasuries ETF Theme Comparison - aeoae

U.S. Long-Term Treasuries ETF Overview

This group currently tracks 11 ETFs, with average boundary fit 26.0% and average structure score 0.26.

Risk ReleaseSECTOR PHASE

U.S. Long-Term Treasuries still has a high share of weak or defensive members. Wait for that pressure to ease before treating rebounds as a full group turn.

Use this page as a filter, then verify single-ETF detail pages.

Participation
0.0%
Breakout Share
0.0%
Average Fit
26.0%

01Group Overview

Start with size, participation, breakout depth and current fit.
Tracked ETFs
11
Current snapshot
L3+
0
0.0%
Watch List
0
Middle structure
Defense Zone
11
100.0%

02Group Conclusion

Conclusion first, evidence second, ETF data third.
Main Trend
Risk Release

U.S. Long-Term Treasuries still has a high share of weak or defensive members. Wait for that pressure to ease before treating rebounds as a full group turn.

Direction
0.0%

Participation · Breakout Share 0.0% · Average Fit 26.0%

Action Bias
0.08

Start with higher-ranked ETFs, then verify boundary details.

03Peer Group Comparison

Compare adjacent groups on one scale.
GroupParticipationBreakoutTrend ScoreStructure FitStage
Cybersecurity100.0%100.0%0.9474.3%Mainline Expansion
Broad Commodities90.0%30.0%0.6075.2%Mainline Expansion
Oil & Gas / Energy92.0%29.0%0.5868.0%Mainline Expansion
Cloud / Software / Internet83.0%33.0%0.5658.9%Mainline Expansion
Utilities100.0%0.0%0.5058.3%Leader-Led
Agriculture / Water Resources60.0%60.0%0.5062.5%Mainline Expansion
Russell 100083.0%17.0%0.4958.2%Leader-Led
Financials / Banks64.0%32.0%0.4758.1%Mainline Expansion

04ETF Ranking and Selection

Answer which ETF deserves attention first.

05Theme Structure

Separate breadth, breakout, defense and fit.
Participation
0.0%
Breakout Share
0.0%
Defense
100.0%
Average Fit
26.0%
Score
7.8%

06ETF Comparison Module

Each ETF shows trend, stage, room, fit and ranking reason.
TickerNameTrendStageTarget RoomHistorical FitRankWhy Leading
IEFiShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETFstrong bearish structureL1---48.1%1/8Top-three group rank, priority watch candidate
XTENBondbloxx Bloomberg Ten Year Target Duration US Treasury ETFbearish-leaning structureL1---36.3%2/8Top-three group rank, priority watch candidate
GOVIInvesco Equal Weight 0-30 Years Treasury ETFstrong bullish structureL4+--88.1%3/8Above L4, strongest breakout confirmation
TLHiShares 10-20 Year Treasury Bond ETFbearish-leaning structureL1---35.6%4/8Currently in L1-, useful peer benchmark
SPTLState Street SPDR Portfolio Long Term Treasury ETFbearish-leaning structureL1---36.7%5/8Currently in L1-, useful peer benchmark
TLTWiShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond Buywrite Strategy ETFbearish-leaning structureL1---36.4%6/8Currently in L1-, useful peer benchmark
EDVVanguard Extended Duration Treasury Index Fund ETF Sharesbearish-leaning structureL1---37.2%7/8Currently in L1-, useful peer benchmark
ZROZPIMCO 25+ Year Zero Coupon U.S. Treasury Index Exchange-Traded Fundbearish-leaning structureL1---37.6%8/8Currently in L1-, useful peer benchmark

07ETF Lanes

Narrow the group before opening ETF details.

08What This Page Answers

Three frequent questions with direct answers.
Is U.S. Long-Term Treasuries strong now?

U.S. Long-Term Treasuries is currently in Risk Release; participation is 0.0% and breakout share is 0.0%.

Which U.S. Long-Term Treasuries ETF should be checked first?

Start with the first ranking card, then verify boundaries, review history and liquidity on the detail page.

What should I do next?

Open a single ETF detail page and verify Daily Review, boundary prices, holdings, liquidity and fees.

1

Read rotation first

Use the rotation radar to place this group in the broader market.

Open Rotation Radar ->
2

Then check ranking

Open the higher-ranked ETF detail first.

Open Top ETF ->
3

Cross-check peers

If the group is weak, compare peers to see where strength is moving.

Back to Research ->

09Group Distribution

Trend and boundary distribution clarify structure quickly.

Trend Distribution

87.5%12.5%
Bearish
87.5%
7
Bullish
12.5%
1

Boundary Distribution

87.5%12.5%
L1-
87.5%
7
L4+
12.5%
1

10Difference Reading

Conclusion, evidence and boundary note.
Insight
  • Conclusion - U.S. Long-Term Treasuries still has a high share of weak or defensive members. Wait for that pressure to ease before treating rebounds as a full group turn.
  • Evidence - Participation 0.0% · Breakout Share 0.0% · Average Fit 26.0%
  • Boundary - Compare leaders and laggards instead of treating the whole group as one state.

11ETF Comparison Matrix

Compare on one basis instead of reading one-day moves only.
TickerNameTrendZoneLinesStructure FitReviewScore
IEFiShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETFstrong bearish structureL1-048.1%0.0%0.33
XTENBondbloxx Bloomberg Ten Year Target Duration US Treasury ETFbearish-leaning structureL1-136.3%0.0%0.30
GOVIInvesco Equal Weight 0-30 Years Treasury ETFstrong bullish structureL4+488.1%0.0%0.29
TLHiShares 10-20 Year Treasury Bond ETFbearish-leaning structureL1-135.6%0.0%0.28
SPTLState Street SPDR Portfolio Long Term Treasury ETFbearish-leaning structureL1-136.7%0.0%0.27
TLTWiShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond Buywrite Strategy ETFbearish-leaning structureL1-136.4%0.0%0.24
EDVVanguard Extended Duration Treasury Index Fund ETF Sharesbearish-leaning structureL1-137.2%0.0%0.22
ZROZPIMCO 25+ Year Zero Coupon U.S. Treasury Index Exchange-Traded Fundbearish-leaning structureL1-137.6%0.0%0.20

1212-D Reading Frame

Read position, buffer and fit layers before the full table.
Position Layer
Average vs L3 -0.5%

Shows whether the group is only crossing the midline or already stretched far from L3.

Buffer Layer
Average vs L1 1.0%

Shows how much buffer remains above L1, which helps separate repair from stability.

Fit Layer
Average Boundary60 30.3

Shows the average historical boundary review score, a quick read on evidence quality.

TickerNameTrendLinesZoneStructure FitReviewvs L3vs L1L4 StateSamples
IEFiShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETFstrong bearish structure0L1-48.1%---0.5%-0.0%below trigger60
XTENBondbloxx Bloomberg Ten Year Target Duration US Treasury ETFbearish-leaning structure1L1-36.3%---0.7%0.1%below trigger60
GOVIInvesco Equal Weight 0-30 Years Treasury ETFstrong bullish structure4L4+88.1%--1.7%6.7%tentative_breakout60
TLHiShares 10-20 Year Treasury Bond ETFbearish-leaning structure1L1-35.6%---0.8%0.1%below trigger60
SPTLState Street SPDR Portfolio Long Term Treasury ETFbearish-leaning structure1L1-36.7%---0.8%0.2%below trigger60
TLTWiShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond Buywrite Strategy ETFbearish-leaning structure1L1-36.4%---0.8%0.2%below trigger60
EDVVanguard Extended Duration Treasury Index Fund ETF Sharesbearish-leaning structure1L1-37.2%---1.1%0.6%below trigger60
ZROZPIMCO 25+ Year Zero Coupon U.S. Treasury Index Exchange-Traded Fundbearish-leaning structure1L1-37.6%---1.3%0.6%below trigger60

13Historical Review Frame

Combine phase-target replay, reach efficiency and boundary review in one table.
Current Phase
Average samples 6

Shows how many historical phase samples this group can replay against.

Phase Review
15/30D -- / --

Shows how often targets were reached in shorter windows, a read on near-term efficiency.

Boundary Review
60D -- · avg -- days

Combines 60D reach rate and average days to target, a read on completion speed.

TickerNameReview SamplesHit RateAvg DaysL4 15DL4 30DL4 60DStabilityBoundary 20Boundary 60
IEFiShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF6----------lower confidence31.535.6
XTENBondbloxx Bloomberg Ten Year Target Duration US Treasury ETF6----------lower confidence27.929.0
GOVIInvesco Equal Weight 0-30 Years Treasury ETF6----------lower confidence32.129.4
TLHiShares 10-20 Year Treasury Bond ETF6----------lower confidence28.729.8
SPTLState Street SPDR Portfolio Long Term Treasury ETF6----------lower confidence25.928.7
TLTWiShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond Buywrite Strategy ETF6----------lower confidence23.030.3
EDVVanguard Extended Duration Treasury Index Fund ETF Shares6----------lower confidence29.631.1
ZROZPIMCO 25+ Year Zero Coupon U.S. Treasury Index Exchange-Traded Fund6----------moderate28.228.5

14Boundary Position Table

Compare close with L2/L3/L4 and read the current boundary zone.
TickerNameCloseL2L3L4Position
IEFiShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF93.8093.9994.3095.08L1-
XTENBondbloxx Bloomberg Ten Year Target Duration US Treasury ETF44.9045.0045.2145.71L1-
GOVIInvesco Equal Weight 0-30 Years Treasury ETF26.7025.8626.2526.61L4+
TLHiShares 10-20 Year Treasury Bond ETF98.3498.5999.11100.41L1-
SPTLState Street SPDR Portfolio Long Term Treasury ETF25.6125.6625.8226.19L1-
TLTWiShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond Buywrite Strategy ETF21.8921.9322.0722.39L1-
EDVVanguard Extended Duration Treasury Index Fund ETF Shares62.1162.2062.8264.23L1-
ZROZPIMCO 25+ Year Zero Coupon U.S. Treasury Index Exchange-Traded Fund60.9061.0161.6963.25L1-

15Research Caliber

Grouping source, comparison order and interpretation boundary.
Grouping Source

Members follow the same grouping used by the rotation radar, so this page is rebuilt as data updates.

Reading Order

Read group breadth and distribution first, then ETF lanes, boundary position and historical fit.

Interpretation Boundary

The page explains relative structure inside the group; it does not replace official disclosures or suitability checks.

Risk Note - Risk note: group strength changes quickly. Verify official disclosures, liquidity and suitability independently.