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Research/Consumer ETF Theme Comparison/ConsumerData 2026-08-13
Consumer ETF Theme Comparison - aeoae

Consumer ETF Overview

This group currently tracks 10 ETFs, with average boundary fit 58.9% and average structure score 0.59.

Mainline ExpansionSECTOR PHASE

Consumer is still one of the strongest groups, but it is already extended above L4 across many members, so read it as profit-taking and pullback management first.

Use this page as a filter, then verify single-ETF detail pages.

Participation
70.0%
Breakout Share
40.0%
Average Fit
58.9%

01Group Overview

Start with size, participation, breakout depth and current fit.
Tracked ETFs
10
Current snapshot
L3+
7
70.0%
Watch List
3
Middle structure
Defense Zone
0
0.0%

02Group Conclusion

Conclusion first, evidence second, ETF data third.
Main Trend
Mainline Expansion

Consumer is still one of the strongest groups, but it is already extended above L4 across many members, so read it as profit-taking and pullback management first.

Direction
70.0%

Participation · Breakout Share 40.0% · Average Fit 58.9%

Action Bias
0.48

Start with higher-ranked ETFs, then verify boundary details.

03Peer Group Comparison

Compare adjacent groups on one scale.
GroupParticipationBreakoutTrend ScoreStructure FitStage
Cybersecurity100.0%100.0%0.9684.8%Mainline Expansion
Cloud / Software / Internet100.0%100.0%0.9478.7%Mainline Expansion
AI / Robotics100.0%89.0%0.9373.8%Mainline Expansion
Nuclear / Uranium100.0%100.0%0.9367.7%Mainline Expansion
Silver100.0%100.0%0.9367.3%Mainline Expansion
Gold Miners100.0%100.0%0.9267.3%Mainline Expansion
Physical Gold100.0%100.0%0.9265.3%Mainline Expansion
Defense / Aerospace100.0%86.0%0.8972.5%Mainline Expansion

04ETF Ranking and Selection

Answer which ETF deserves attention first.

05Theme Structure

Separate breadth, breakout, defense and fit.
Participation
70.0%
Breakout Share
40.0%
Defense
0.0%
Average Fit
58.9%
Score
48.2%

06ETF Comparison Module

Each ETF shows trend, stage, room, fit and ranking reason.
TickerNameTrendStageTarget RoomHistorical FitRankWhy Leading
FSTAFidelity MSCI Consumer Staples In…bullish-leaning zoneL1-L22.0%60.6%1/8Above L3 by 0.3%, stronger group position
VDCVanguard Consumer Staples Index F…bullish-leaning zoneL1-L21.9%60.4%2/8Above L3 by 0.3%, stronger group position
XLPState Street Consumer Staples Sel…bullish-leaning zoneL1-L22.2%62.1%3/8Above L3 by 0.3%, stronger group position
IYCiShares US Consumer Discretionary…bullish-leaning zoneL1-L21.2%61.2%4/8Above L3 by 0.2%, stronger group position
XLYState Street Consumer Discretiona…neutral zoneL1-L22.4%63.0%5/8Currently in L1-L2, useful peer benchmark
ITBiShares U.S. Home Construction ETFneutral zoneL1-L27.5%63.3%6/8Currently in L1-L2, useful peer benchmark
XHBState Street SPDR S&P Homebuilder…neutral zoneL1-L26.1%63.2%7/8Currently in L1-L2, useful peer benchmark
IYKiShares US Consumer Staples ETFbearish-leaning zoneL1-L23.1%63.7%8/8Currently in L1-L2, useful peer benchmark

07ETF Lanes

Narrow the group before opening ETF details.

08What This Page Answers

Three frequent questions with direct answers.
Is Consumer strong now?

Consumer is currently in Mainline Expansion; participation is 70.0% and breakout share is 40.0%.

Which Consumer ETF should be checked first?

Start with the first ranking card, then verify boundaries, review history and liquidity on the detail page.

What should I do next?

Open a single ETF detail page and verify Daily Review, boundary prices, holdings, liquidity and fees.

1

Read rotation first

Use the rotation radar to place this group in the broader market.

Open Rotation Radar ->
2

Then check ranking

Open the higher-ranked ETF detail first.

Open Top ETF ->
3

Cross-check peers

If the group is weak, compare peers to see where strength is moving.

Back to Research ->

09Group Distribution

Trend and boundary distribution clarify structure quickly.

Trend Distribution

50.0%37.5%12.5%
Bullish
50.0%
4
Neutral
37.5%
3
Bearish
12.5%
1

Boundary Distribution

100.0%
L1-L2
100.0%
8

10Difference Reading

Conclusion, evidence and boundary note.
Insight
  • Conclusion - Consumer is still one of the strongest groups, but it is already extended above L4 across many members, so read it as profit-taking and pullback management first.
  • Evidence - Participation 70.0% · Breakout Share 40.0% · Average Fit 58.9%
  • Boundary - Compare leaders and laggards instead of treating the whole group as one state.

11ETF Comparison

Compare on one basis instead of reading one-day moves only.
TickerNameTrendZoneLinesStructure FitReviewScore
FSTAFidelity MSCI Consumer Staples In…bullish-leaning zoneL1-L2360.6%0.0%0.69
VDCVanguard Consumer Staples Index F…bullish-leaning zoneL1-L2360.4%0.0%0.69
XLPState Street Consumer Staples Sel…bullish-leaning zoneL1-L2362.1%0.0%0.69
IYCiShares US Consumer Discretionary…bullish-leaning zoneL1-L2361.2%0.0%0.69
XLYState Street Consumer Discretiona…neutral zoneL1-L2263.0%0.0%0.66
ITBiShares U.S. Home Construction ETFneutral zoneL1-L2263.3%0.0%0.63
XHBState Street SPDR S&P Homebuilder…neutral zoneL1-L2263.2%0.0%0.63
IYKiShares US Consumer Staples ETFbearish-leaning zoneL1-L2163.7%0.0%0.49

1212-Session Cross-Section Comparison

Compare each ETF over the recent 12-session cross-section by trend, boundary, fit and review state.
Position Layer
Average vs L3 -0.2%

Shows whether the group is only crossing the midline or already stretched far from L3.

Buffer Layer
Average vs L1 2.5%

Shows how much buffer remains above L1, which helps separate repair from stability.

Fit Layer
Average Boundary60 33.3

Shows the average historical boundary review score, a quick read on evidence quality.

TickerNameTrendLinesZoneStructure FitReviewvs L3vs L1L4 StateSamples
FSTAFidelity MSCI Consumer Staples In…bullish-leaning zone3L1-L260.6%66.7%0.3%2.0%below trigger60
VDCVanguard Consumer Staples Index F…bullish-leaning zone3L1-L260.4%0.0%0.3%2.0%below trigger60
XLPState Street Consumer Staples Sel…bullish-leaning zone3L1-L262.1%80.0%0.3%2.1%below trigger60
IYCiShares US Consumer Discretionary…bullish-leaning zone3L1-L261.2%33.3%0.2%2.2%below trigger60
XLYState Street Consumer Discretiona…neutral zone2L1-L263.0%25.0%-0.1%2.2%below trigger60
ITBiShares U.S. Home Construction ETFneutral zone2L1-L263.3%33.3%-1.4%4.8%below trigger60
XHBState Street SPDR S&P Homebuilder…neutral zone2L1-L263.2%60.0%-1.0%4.0%below trigger60
IYKiShares US Consumer Staples ETFbearish-leaning zone1L1-L263.7%60.0%-0.6%0.9%below trigger60

13Historical Review Frame

Combine phase-target replay, reach efficiency and boundary review in one table.
Current Phase
Average samples 4

Shows how many historical phase samples this group can replay against.

Phase Review
15/30D 12.3% / 31.5%

Shows how often targets were reached in shorter windows, a read on near-term efficiency.

Boundary Review
60D 44.8% · avg 36.8 days

Combines 60D reach rate and average days to target, a read on completion speed.

TickerNameReview SamplesHit RateAvg DaysL4 15DL4 30DL4 60DStabilityBoundary 20Boundary 60
FSTAFidelity MSCI Consumer Staples In…366.7%16.533.3%66.7%66.7%lower confidence30.232.7
VDCVanguard Consumer Staples Index F…30.0%110.50.0%0.0%0.0%lower confidence30.032.0
XLPState Street Consumer Staples Sel…580.0%23.520.0%60.0%80.0%moderate28.630.5
IYCiShares US Consumer Discretionary…333.3%52.00.0%0.0%33.3%lower confidence34.332.8
XLYState Street Consumer Discretiona…425.0%9.025.0%25.0%25.0%moderate33.932.7
ITBiShares U.S. Home Construction ETF333.3%34.00.0%0.0%33.3%moderate37.539.8
XHBState Street SPDR S&P Homebuilder…560.0%16.020.0%60.0%60.0%moderate32.434.4
IYKiShares US Consumer Staples ETF560.0%33.00.0%40.0%60.0%moderate23.331.6

14Boundary Position Table

Compare close with L2/L3/L4 and read the current boundary zone.
TickerNameCloseL2L3L4Position
FSTAFidelity MSCI Consumer Staples In…54.3053.8554.1354.53L1-L2
VDCVanguard Consumer Staples Index F…233.09231.12232.37234.47L1-L2
XLPState Street Consumer Staples Sel…86.0085.2385.7286.45L1-L2
IYCiShares US Consumer Discretionary…103.50102.60103.31104.55L1-L2
XLYState Street Consumer Discretiona…118.45117.67118.55120.57L1-L2
ITBiShares U.S. Home Construction ETF99.5398.81100.91105.74L1-L2
XHBState Street SPDR S&P Homebuilder…109.53108.78110.64114.90L1-L2
IYKiShares US Consumer Staples ETF74.4374.4574.8875.88L1-L2

15Research Caliber

Grouping source, comparison order and interpretation boundary.
Grouping Source

Members follow the same grouping used by the rotation radar, so this page is rebuilt as data updates.

Reading Order

Read group breadth and distribution first, then ETF lanes, boundary position and historical fit.

Interpretation Boundary

The page explains relative structure inside the group; it does not replace official disclosures or suitability checks.

Risk Note - Risk note: group strength changes quickly. Verify official disclosures, liquidity and suitability independently.